"Part A introduces theory of change (ToC) and Hivos’ perspective on ToC thinking: what it is, what you should know before you start, and key features of ToC thinking that you need to understand in order to be able to use the approach effectively and reap the benefits of the process. ‘Theory of C
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hange’ as a term is used by an increasing number of organisations and demanded by donors, but is not always understood in the same way. Hivos has developed its own understanding of the process and what good quality ToC work is all about. All users who are not fully acquainted with a ToC approach and/or are new to Hivos will benefit from reading this part. Part B is a stepwise approach to guide you through the process of developing a ToC for different purposes. Here you will find also information on how to use specific tools recommended for each step. This is the most practical part of the document. Part B also includes ideas for a ToC Quality Audit that can be used to check whether all the necessary components are elaborated with sufficient quality. Such an audit is useful in two situations. First, for staff responsible for assessing proposals, either from partner organisations to Hivos, or from Hivos to other donors. It can also be used as an extra check at the end of a table of contents; design process by the team involved in the process. Second, for those involved in the review of the ToC of an ongoing intervention. Part C contains references to tools suggested in Part B, as well as resources and sites where you can find more information about ToC use." (Page 8)
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"This brief offers a simple one-page tool for thinking about the theories of change that underlie public policy advocacy strategies. It first presents the tool and then offers six questions that advocates, and funders working with advocates, can work through to better articulate their theories of ch
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ange. The tool—labeled the advocacy strategy framework—has several advantages over more familiar linear box-and-arrow theory-of-change tools: As advocacy is not predictable or linear, the tool does not force linear thinking; it offers a place to start, rather than a blank page; it helps advocates to think more specifically about audiences—who is expected to change and how, and what it will take to get them there; while theories of change often consider advocacy strategies in isolation of other efforts, this tool helps to think about how other advocates (like-minded or in opposition) are positioned; it prompts thinking about useful tactics and meaningful interim outcomes." (Introduction, page 1)
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"The purpose of this guide is to help managers and development practitioners to really understand what a Theory of Change approach involves and includes, how it can complement and strengthen already existing methods for planning and evaluation, and how to get started on this journey. It introduces t
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he basic principles of applying a Theory of Change approach to planning, monitoring and evaluation, and explains how these principles can be applied for organizational planning and strategizing, for programme planning, monitoring and evaluation or for individual projects. It is important to note from the start that there is no such thing as ‘one theory of change’. There are as many theories of change as there are planners and development practitioners practicing the approach. In fact, applying a theory of change approach is a bit like applying principles of the French cuisine: There are a few basic principles to stick to, for it to be French cooking. The ways these principles are applied are as diverse as the number of cooks. Therefore, we have decided that this should be an inspirational guide rather than a set of recipes." (Purpose of this guide, page 5)
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"Why Create a Theory of Change? It is no longer enough for nonprofits to do “good work.” With growing competition for social change dollars it is absolutely crucial that nonprofits develop their own Theory of Change. Funders, policy makers and board members are increasingly demanding that nonpro
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fits explain what social change they are trying to achieve. It used to be enough for a nonprofit to talk about what it produced (or “outputs”), such as meals served in a soup kitchen, hours spent reading to a child, beds provided in a homeless shelter, but that just doesn’t cut it anymore. In a world where there are fewer and fewer dollars and more and more nonprofits fighting for those dollars, people are increasingly asking what a nonprofit organization ultimately exists to do. It is not enough to create outputs. The question must increasingly become, “Did anything really change because of our work? Did the lives of those in our program change, and did the community change?” If you want to raise more money, chart a strategic direction, make your nonprofit more effective, get your board engaged, and achieve your mission, you need a Theory of Change." (Page 1)
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"This article highlights the key areas in which Communication for Development (C4D) can play a role in the aftermath of conflict, with a focus both at the community and at the national level. It provides an overview of the literature that has begun to discuss C4D in the light of peace creation. It i
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dentifies research directions that aid to shed light on the effectiveness of C4D interventions targeting issues that are specific to post-conflict environments. It recognises its strengths when working in conjunction with broader peacebuilding programmes. Finally, it introduces a new Theory of Change (ToC) framework that is helpful in assessing the role of C4D in the achievement of sustainable peace after violence." (Abstract)
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"This brief discusses the concept of theory of change in the broader sense of the term, while recognizing that it is sometimes defined more narrowly. A theory of change can be used for strategic planning or programme/policy planning to identify the current situation (in terms of needs and opportunit
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ies), the intended situation and what needs to be done to move from one to the other. This can help to design more realistic goals, clarify accountabilities and establish a common understanding of the strategies to be used to achieve the goals. For example, the UNICEF Strategic Plan 2014–2017 is based on a theory of change that builds on UNICEF’s comparative advantages, and encompasses identifying and scaling up effective technological, scientific and programmatic innovations; improving organizational capacity for the implementation of policies and national laws; developing the capacities of children, families and communities to act as agents of change; and working in national and global partnerships. A theory of change can also be used during implementation to identify which indicators must be monitored, and to explain to staff, funders and partners how the programme or policy works." (Page 2)
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"Theory of change is actually a very simple concept. Throughout our work and personal lives we have aims, objectives and ideas about how to achieve our goals, but we rarely take the time to think these through, articulate and scrutinise them. All a theory of change process does is to make these assu
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mptions explicit and therefore more testable. While the idea itself is simple, the terminology around theory of change can be confusing because there are variations in the approach. In this document we use the term to refer to the broad family of approaches that all help to articulate the reasoning behind a project. This includes the CES Planning Triangle©, logic models, outcomes chains, and narratives. However, others in the field use theory of change to refer only to the outcomes chain approach. As an organisation thinking about using theory of change, the most important thing is not to get bogged down in terminology, but to use the method that suits your needs best. This guide aims to help you through your theory of change process and support you to produce something that strengthens the design and delivery of your projects, and gives you confidence in your approach to evaluation and learning." (Introduction)
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"This brief lays out 10 theories grounded in diverse disciplines and worldviews that have relevance to the world of advocacy and policy change. These theories can help to untangle beliefs and assumptions about the inner workings of the policy making process and identify causal connections supported
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by research to explain how and why a change may or may not occur. This piece is not meant to be comprehensive of all possible relevant theories and approaches; rather, it introduces and illustrates a handful of theories that may be useful to advocates, funders, and evaluators. While the theories included may have broad applicability, the brief is grounded in the context of US domestic policy. Knowing about existing theories may sharpen your own thinking, provide new ways of looking at the policy world, and give you a leg up on developing your own theory of change. The final section gives concrete examples of the way in which advocates, funders, and evaluators can use this brief in their work." (Introduction, page 1-2)
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"The goal of this document is to improve the effectiveness of DFID programmes and the measurement of their impacts by providing DFID Advisers with the practical skills to develop high quality theories of change, to understand the role they play in programme design and assessment. It is intended for
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DFID advisors to more clearly and explicitly articulate their theories of change as a means of improving the effectiveness of interventions. Part I first explores the fundamentals of theories of change: what they are, why they are important, and how to create a theory of change. It explores theories of change at different levels, and concludes with advice on how theories of change can enhance the effectiveness and relevance of programming. Part II continues to build upon Part I by focusing on how theories of change can be used in the monitoring and evaluation stages of the project cycle. It provides practical guidance on how and why to use theories of change-focused monitoring and evaluation strategies, particularly exploring the ways in which theories of change can be included in any evaluation approach." (Document summary, page 3)
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"The goal of this document is to improve the effectiveness of DFID programmes and the measurement of their impacts by providing DFID Advisers with the practical skills to develop high quality theories of change, to understand the role they play in programme design and assessment. It is intended for
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DFID advisors to more clearly and explicitly articulate their theories of change as a means of improving the effectiveness of interventions. Part I first explores the fundamentals of theories of change: what they are, why they are important, and how to create a theory of change. It explores theories of change at different levels, and concludes with advice on how theories of change can enhance the effectiveness and relevance of programming." (Document summary, page 3)
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"Governments and donor agencies are under increasing pressure to show hard evidence that their interventions are effective and good value for money. Anti-corruption is a challenging field in this regard, with few evidence-based models to draw upon, so both the design and the evaluation of programmes
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need to be supported by good analytical frameworks. The theory of change (ToC) approach focuses on how and why an initiative works. Constructing a ToC enables government and donor staff to identify the logic underpinning their programmes and clarify how interventions are expected to lead to the intended results. The paper presents a user-friendly five-step methodology for building a theory of change for a programme or project. It highlights the importance of preconditions, factors that must be in place for the intervention to work as intended, distinguishing between those preconditions that can be addressed by the programme design and those that cannot. Finally, the paper provides general and sector-specific guidance based on case studies of programms in three areas: anti-corruption authorities, civil society work, and public sector reforms." (Abstract)
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"Aid work in relation to conflict and peace is often based on approaches, strategies and tactics that are rooted in theories of change (understandings about why particular inputs or activities are expected to achieve intended results [outputs, outcomes and impacts]) that are unstated or ill-defined.
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They are embedded in the skills and approaches of individual practitioners and peacebuilding organisations, their capacities and technologies, attachments to favourite methodologies, and the perspectives of different stakeholders about conflict and peace. In the imaginary example of an anti-bias peace programme for journalists in Annex C, one question would be how the planned workshops, consciousness raising, and skills development might actually change conflict reporting. The programme could track the language used in reporting before and after the effort and also survey public attitudes. At the same time, it could see whether the activities were achieving the expected results – or if unexpected obstacles appeared. For instance, it might turn out that individual journalists have very little influence over the use of inflammatory language and that editors determine the use of such language to boost sales. That outcome would suggest that the “theory”, about inducing changes in reporting by training journalists, was flawed. One related task is to identify the sources of theories. Are they a) based on experience (the programme designers’ personal and professional experience or that of the stakeholders and beneficiaries consulted during programme design); or b) research-based? Evaluation can contribute to improving the design and implementation of ongoing programmes." (Page 80)
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"Focusing on theories of change can improve the effectiveness of peacebuilding interventions. A review of 19 peacebuilding projects in three conflict-affected countries found that the process of articulating and reviewing theories of change adds rigour and transparency, clarifies project logic, high
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lights assumptions that need to be tested, and helps identify appropriate participants and partners. However, the approach has limitations, including the difficulty of gathering theory-validating evidence." (Executive summary)
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"This research report considers the application of ToC to governance programmes in post-conflict and fragile states. It should be noted that, because of what information is available, the examples reviewed in this report are from post-conflict and least developed (though not necessarily fragile) sta
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tes. They are mainly (but not all explicitly) governance-focused, and while some have elements of accountability, public sector management and public service delivery, none are about public financial management. The case studies discussed show that articulating and reviewing Theories of Change in peacebuilding programmes adds rigour and transparency, clarifies project logic, highlights assumptions that need to be tested and helps identify appropriate participants and partners. Yet, for ToC application to be effective, particularly in governance settings, a number of factors need to be taken into consideration, including: conflict analysis is critical for determining the relevance of activities in post-conflict contexts but is rarely done; gathering evidence to validate a Theory of Change is challenging, particularly in conditions of conflict and fragility; theories of Change can encourage an overly linear approach, when the reality of change in conflict contexts is complex and more organic; people involved, both staff and programme participants, may require a lot of support to understand the dynamics and effective use of ToC." (Overview, page 1-2)
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"[This publication] is for planners and evaluators who are going to facilitate a process for creating a theory of change with community-based programs and community change initiatives. It was designed as a “refresher course” for planners, evaluators, and others who have attended one of the Round
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table’s Theory of Change Workshops, but we fully expect experienced facilitators will be able to quickly learn and apply the method as described in this guide.. We’ve organized this guide into two sections. Section One answers the question “What is a theory of change?” It provides all the information needed to facilitate a theory of change process with a community group. This section: reviews the major concepts that define theories of change; provides important background information for facilitators before they enter a planning session; and offers practical guidance for facilitating planning sessions. Section Two is a resource toolbox for the theory of change facilitator. It includes: a case study to show a portion of a finished theory of change; a list of materials to bring to a planning session; a participants list that suggests the ideal composition of a theory of change building team for a community-based program or initiative; a glossary that could be distributed at the training sessions; and a description of PowerPoint presentations that you can download from our web site." (Introduction)
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"[...] Fortunately, in the last decade in particular, much progress has been made on incorporating social science theory into both campaign design and evaluation, primarily in the health field. Indeed, evaluators are being encouraged to engage in theory testing and/or logic model development. Findin
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gs from recent meta-analyses suggest that newer communication campaigns are increasingly utilizing theory. In addition, there has been great diversity in the theories being applied in this area, and many of the theories being used most often, including the Theory of Reasoned Action, Social Cognitive Theory, and the transtheoretical “Stages of Change” model, also are widely studied in the health behavior change literature.
An evaluation research team typically consists of program staff in charge of program planning and a program evaluator. Often, the program evaluator is one of the few behavioral or social scientists on the project. Without a theorist on the team, the theory behind the project is likely to remain implicit from the start. The failure to acknowledge or discuss theory from the beginning risks wasting resources on message strategies that are not adequately linked to psychosocial predictors of behavior, and on performance measures that are off the mark. Thus, all program personnel should be involved in theory/logic model development so that the theoretical underpinnings of the project are grounded in more than evaluator assumptions." (Introduction)
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"Every community needs a roadmap for change. Instead of bridges, avenues and freeways, this map would illustrate destinations of progress and the routes to travel on the way to achieving progress. The map would also provide commentary about assumptions, such as the final destination, the context for
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the map, the processes to engage in during the journey and the belief system that underlies the importance of traveling in a particular way. This type of map is called a "theory of change." The label theory of change is often referred to by other terms, such as pathway of change, engine of change, blueprint, logic model and theory of action. Regardless of the label, a theory of change offers a picture of important destinations and guides you on what to look for on the journey to ensure you are on the right pathway." (Introduction)
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