Theories of Change in Reality: Strengths, Limitations and Future Directions
London; New York: Routledge (2024), xviii, 266 pp.
Series: Comparative Policy Evaluation
ISBN 978-1-032-66962-5 (pbk); 978-1-032-66961-8 (ebook)
"For over 50 years, evaluators have used theories of change to articulate the causal logic underpinning how an intervention is intended to bring about a desired change. From its origins in programme evaluation, the approach has been adopted more widely for purposes from program design to program management. As theories of change continue to be used for multiple purposes, it is an opportune moment for the evaluation community—where the approach originated—to provide their perspective on the strengths and limitations of the approach and its future directions. To provide these perspectives, we asked nearly 30 of the world’s leading evaluators and programme theorists to provide a short essay on the past, present, and future of theories of change. This book presents their insights organized into five main themes: the use of theories of change in broader public policy contexts; using theories of change to establish causality; developing theories of change reflective of multiple stakeholder perspectives; using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes; and applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes. By sharing these diverse perspectives, the book aims to both provide evaluators and emerging programme theorists with critical perspectives to inform future practice." (Publisher description)
PART 1: INTRODUCTION / Andrew Koleros, Marie-Hélène Adrien and Tony Tyrrell, 1
PART 2: CONSIDERATIONS IN USING THEORIES OF CHANGE TO ESTABLISH CAUSALITY
1 Setting the stage for contribution claims / Thomas Delahais, 15
2 Using theories of change to assess causality in a policy change context / Carlisle J. Levine, 25
3 My perspective on theories of change / Markus Palenberg, 34
4 Theories of change between critical thinking and social practices / Peter Dahler-Larsen, 43
5 How deep is your ontology? How ontological thinking can improve how evaluators use theories of change / Tom Ling, 49
PART 3: USING THEORIES OF CHANGE TO UNDERSTAND WIDER SOCIETAL CHANGE PROCESSES
6 Theory of change for sustainable business / Jens Andersson, 61
7 Upcycling theory of change for impact investment and early stage ventures / Penny Hawkins and Zazie Tolmer, 67
8 Strategy-level theories of change require a focus on systems change: An actor-based approach can help / Andrew Koleros, 73
9 Evaluating the use of artificial intelligence and big data in policy making: Unpacking black boxes and testing white boxes / Frans l. Leeuw, 83
10 Developing, representing, and using theories of change for interventions in complex systems / Patricia Rogers, 94
PART 4: ADAPTING THEORIES OF CHANGE FOR USE IN BROADER PUBLIC POLICY CONTEXTS
11 Theories of change in evaluation of local government reforms / Kurt Houlberg and Olaf Rieper, 105
12 Theories of change and the evaluation of sustainable impact: Moving beyond simplicity in development cooperation / Peter Van Der Knaap, 112
13 Use of theory of change as a management tool for government multiyear development plans: The case of Brazil’s Federal Development Plan / Lycia Lima and Marina Lafer, 122
14 Theories of change in complex macro public-sector planning settings in Africa: How useful are they? / Candice Morkel, 129
15 Simple heuristics for drafting theories of change: A case of behavioural insights into food waste / Karol Olejniczak and Igor Lyubashenko, 137
PART 5: APPLYING THEORIES OF CHANGE APPROACHES FOR MULTIPLE PURPOSES
16 The law of the instrument: Would you rather be a theory or a nail? / Gordon Freer, 151
17 3ie: A ‘balloon-squeezing’ approach to the theory of change / Marie Moland Gaarder, 160
18 Integrating theories of change in programme management and delivery / Mark Oldenbeuving, 170
19 Theories of change: Who needs them? Or: What evaluators can learn from opera / Burt Perrin, 177
20 How to ensure no-one uses your theory of change: Lessons from the front lines of theory of change facilitation and possibilities for renewal / Mary Tangelder, 184
21 Why do we have theories of change of the programme intervention but not of the intervention that is the evaluation? / Bob Williams, 190
PART 6: DEVELOPING THEORIES OF CHANGE THAT REFLECT MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES
22 Participatory explorations of alternative futures: Using narrative theories of change / Rick Davies, Lara Mani, and Tom Hobson, 199
23 Constructing a living theory of change in fluid and volatile environments: Grounded on context, problem, and evidence / Hur Hassnain, 208
24 Flipping the script on programme theories: Advancing towards transformative theories of change / Sebastian Lemire, 217
25 Theory-based evaluation approaches can enable online project success / Steve Montague, Heloise Emdon, and Eva Grabinski, 225
26 Theory of change as a tool for tracking Intensive Family Programme developments in Whitetown / Jane Mulcahy, Catherine Naughton, and Seán Redmond, 235
PART 7: CONCLUSIONS AROUND THEORIES OF CHANGE IN REALITY / Andrew Koleros, Marie-Hélène Adrien, and Tony Tyrrell, 245
PART 2: CONSIDERATIONS IN USING THEORIES OF CHANGE TO ESTABLISH CAUSALITY
1 Setting the stage for contribution claims / Thomas Delahais, 15
2 Using theories of change to assess causality in a policy change context / Carlisle J. Levine, 25
3 My perspective on theories of change / Markus Palenberg, 34
4 Theories of change between critical thinking and social practices / Peter Dahler-Larsen, 43
5 How deep is your ontology? How ontological thinking can improve how evaluators use theories of change / Tom Ling, 49
PART 3: USING THEORIES OF CHANGE TO UNDERSTAND WIDER SOCIETAL CHANGE PROCESSES
6 Theory of change for sustainable business / Jens Andersson, 61
7 Upcycling theory of change for impact investment and early stage ventures / Penny Hawkins and Zazie Tolmer, 67
8 Strategy-level theories of change require a focus on systems change: An actor-based approach can help / Andrew Koleros, 73
9 Evaluating the use of artificial intelligence and big data in policy making: Unpacking black boxes and testing white boxes / Frans l. Leeuw, 83
10 Developing, representing, and using theories of change for interventions in complex systems / Patricia Rogers, 94
PART 4: ADAPTING THEORIES OF CHANGE FOR USE IN BROADER PUBLIC POLICY CONTEXTS
11 Theories of change in evaluation of local government reforms / Kurt Houlberg and Olaf Rieper, 105
12 Theories of change and the evaluation of sustainable impact: Moving beyond simplicity in development cooperation / Peter Van Der Knaap, 112
13 Use of theory of change as a management tool for government multiyear development plans: The case of Brazil’s Federal Development Plan / Lycia Lima and Marina Lafer, 122
14 Theories of change in complex macro public-sector planning settings in Africa: How useful are they? / Candice Morkel, 129
15 Simple heuristics for drafting theories of change: A case of behavioural insights into food waste / Karol Olejniczak and Igor Lyubashenko, 137
PART 5: APPLYING THEORIES OF CHANGE APPROACHES FOR MULTIPLE PURPOSES
16 The law of the instrument: Would you rather be a theory or a nail? / Gordon Freer, 151
17 3ie: A ‘balloon-squeezing’ approach to the theory of change / Marie Moland Gaarder, 160
18 Integrating theories of change in programme management and delivery / Mark Oldenbeuving, 170
19 Theories of change: Who needs them? Or: What evaluators can learn from opera / Burt Perrin, 177
20 How to ensure no-one uses your theory of change: Lessons from the front lines of theory of change facilitation and possibilities for renewal / Mary Tangelder, 184
21 Why do we have theories of change of the programme intervention but not of the intervention that is the evaluation? / Bob Williams, 190
PART 6: DEVELOPING THEORIES OF CHANGE THAT REFLECT MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES
22 Participatory explorations of alternative futures: Using narrative theories of change / Rick Davies, Lara Mani, and Tom Hobson, 199
23 Constructing a living theory of change in fluid and volatile environments: Grounded on context, problem, and evidence / Hur Hassnain, 208
24 Flipping the script on programme theories: Advancing towards transformative theories of change / Sebastian Lemire, 217
25 Theory-based evaluation approaches can enable online project success / Steve Montague, Heloise Emdon, and Eva Grabinski, 225
26 Theory of change as a tool for tracking Intensive Family Programme developments in Whitetown / Jane Mulcahy, Catherine Naughton, and Seán Redmond, 235
PART 7: CONCLUSIONS AROUND THEORIES OF CHANGE IN REALITY / Andrew Koleros, Marie-Hélène Adrien, and Tony Tyrrell, 245
