"This study uses econometric modelling to examine two major components of great importance to all those concerned with investment decisions in ICT and the digital ecosystem over the coming decade. The modelling is built on data from 139 countries between 2007 and 2018 – an up-to-date data set that is robust, high-quality and global in scope. The first component examined is how broadband and digitization impact the economy. The second is how institutional and regulatory maturity impact the growth of the digital ecosystem.
Our evidence points to four major findings that are of great import in informing governments, policy-makers, regulators and operators as they formulate general infrastructure and ICT investment decisions in the years ahead. The findings are:
1. Developing countries should implement policies to maximize mobile broadband1 adoption, as the main digital technology contributing to economic development and addressing the digital divide.
2. Developed countries should adopt policies which favour fixed broadband penetration as a key contributor to their economic growth.
3. Beyond broadband, all countries should aim to increase the development of digitization, which encompasses not only infrastructure deployment but its usage to foster the digital transformation of industries and improve consumer wellbeing.
4. Regulatory and institutional maturity in the ICT arena do indeed make a significant difference – and are important in driving the growth of digitization.
The study confirms that the economic impact of fixed broadband is guided by a return to scale effect: economic impact grows with penetration. The economic benefit of mobile broadband depicts a saturation effect: its economic contribution declines with penetration." (Executive summary)