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Pooling Aid Sector Demand for Digital Public Goods: Lessons from Sizing Mobile Channel Demand in Sub-Saharan Africa

Digital Impact Alliance (dial);Altai Consulting (2019), 38 pp.
"We started by performing fieldwork in five countries, covering the four main SSA regions: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda. We then conducted 116 interviews across 78 organizations, covering the overall ecosystem: mobile network operators (MNOs), aggregators, donors, multilateral organizations and nongovernmental organization (NGOs). The following are key findings by mobile channel: SMS volumes are driven by a few players, mostly multilateral agencies; Voice/IVR allows for rich interactions, but impact needs to be documented further. USSD usage by aid and development players appears limited despite promise; Interest in mobile money is high among both supply and demand players; Mobile internet adoption is still limited in potential. In each of the five countries, the 2018 market value of all mobile channels generated by NGOs and multilateral organizations was estimated at between $500,000 and $1 million. Using data from these five countries to extrapolate to all 48 countries in SSA, the total 2018 market is estimated at $15.7 million, with mobile money standing out as the largest channel. This aggregate number for the sector appears low compared to the overall size of the telecommunications market. Market appeal is further reduced by the fact that the mobile sector already perceives the aid and development sector as being difficult to work with, due to uncertainty of demand, long procurement processes and other factors. While price has been cited as a reason for this low aggregate number, the fieldwork suggests that it is driven more by the lack of awareness of many implementing partners, particularly at the country level. These challenges to scale are consistent with qualitative findings obtained from DIAL’s Ecosystem Baseline study in 2018. That said, the market appears bound to grow due to strong underlying trends. Our model predicts three scenarios that show a 2022 market value of between $31.6 million and $61.6 million." (Executive summary, page 4)