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The Informational Dictator's Dilemma: Citizen Responses to Media Censorship and Control in Russia and Belarus

PONARS Eurasia (2022), 9 pp.
"The findings described in this memo strongly suggest that "softer" strategies of media cooptation are more effective than harsher, more coercive approaches to media control. In Russia, where the Kremlin has-until very recently-used a combination of commercial pressure and political influence to push media owners and editors towards cooperation, the result has been a media system in which even those Russians who prefer independent media have broad exposure to the Kremlin's messaging. Moreover, as the Vedomosti case demonstrates, softer repressions against uncooperative media outlets seem to afford the Kremlin an opportunity to capture the attention of a large portion of those outlets' audiences. By contrast, the heavier hand wielded by authorities in Minsk has helped create a highly polarized media system, in which oppositional media-despite massive repression- capture more audience attention than state-linked media, and consumers of independent media have very little exposure to state messaging. Attempts to stifle independent media outright only suffice to put oppositional audiences even further out of the reach of the state." (Conclusions, page 8)
The Russian case, 2
The Belarusian case, 3
Survey results, 4
Conclusions, 8