"This Report is the first comprehensive assessment of what artificial intelligence (AI) means for 6.8 billion people living in low- and middle-income countries. It argues that AI represents a historic opportunity for these countries, potentially enabling them to overcome development challenges that have defied solution for decades. Given the scarcity of information on AI’s use in developing countries, the Report sets the ball rolling on closing the gap. It uncovers new facts about how businesses and governments in developing countries are using AI—and identifies the main obstacles to greater and more productive use. AI is a general-purpose technology, or GPT. That puts it in rare company. Steam power. Electricity. Computers and the internet. Each transformed not just one sector, but entire economies, and did so continuously, over decades. Each also followed a pattern: slow and uncertain at first, but eventually reshaping how economies produce and how societies function. AI is following a similar pattern, but on a much faster timeline. It took about 80 years for the steam engine to reach lower-income countries, 40 years for electricity, and 20 years for the internet.1 By contrast, middle-income countries accounted for half of ChatGPT’s global traffic within six months of its launch.2 Rapid diffusion on such a scale has not been seen before.
But history also teaches us that the countries that benefited most from previous GPTs were not always the ones that came up with the underlying technology. Those that benefited had built the necessary foundations and moved fast to develop applications on top of them. The countries that did not invest in the infrastructure, skills, and institutions that such technologies required to function benefited less and felt the most pain from disruption. This lesson is directly relevant to AI: The winning approach will take advantage of the new technologies, not seek refuge from them. In only a few years, AI has evolved from making predictions to generating content from text, audio, and video to now autonomously executing complex tasks. As it becomes more powerful and pervasive, its value as a tool for development depends on three factors. The first is capabilities. Unlike computers or the internet, AI can perform complex thinking tasks that guide decision-making and usually require human expertise, such as diagnosing diseases, forecasting weather, or advising farmers. These skills are often in short supply in developing countries, so AI has the potential to fill important gaps.
The second is concentration. The most advanced AI models, the chips they rely on, and the data centers that run them are controlled by a small number of companies in just a few economies. This concentration creates dependency risks and affects whether the AI tools available will meet developing countries’ needs. However, this concentration also allows countries to customize AI models without having to spend billions of dollars creating the most advanced AI systems from scratch. The third is complements: the foundations that allow AI to be used safely and effectively. AI works best where reliable infrastructure, good education systems, and strong institutions are present. Developing countries often have shortages in all three. AI, moreover, needs to be customized to the local context because it learns from the data upon which it is trained. How quickly countries build these complements—and how well governments and businesses reorganize to use AI productively—will determine how much and how fast AI improves development. In that respect, AI is no different from GPTs that have come before. Ten years ago, World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends called these prerequisites the analog complements to digital technologies. Today, AI requires both strong analog and digital complements to deliver its full benefits." (Overview, pages 1-2)