"The most effective propaganda resonates with audiences’ underlying worldviews and personal experiences. In order to fight it, one has to understand the mindsets that it preys on. This paper sets out to do exactly that. We first track a set of Kremlin-aligned propaganda narratives across Ukrainian media, then measure their overall traction through a representative national survey conducted by the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, and finally use focus groups to understand their deeper appeal and impact. This gives us a uniquely holistic view of contemporary propaganda: from its sources, dissemination, and impact on society right through to how it is received and perceived from the point of view of audiences. The narratives in question include accusations that George Soros’ minions run Ukrainian politics, that the US is building secret bioweapons in Ukraine, and that shadowy “Western curators” secretly control the government. CSS survey data shows that approximately 40% of Ukrainians believe these narratives. They are in turn part of a larger message that sees Ukraine as perpetually under attack from nefarious Western forces. While individual narratives can change over time, this meta-narrative remains. Outright disinformation, conspiratorial thinking, and anti-Western messages combine in a toxic mix. The overall aim is to undermine refo rms, strengthen vested economic interests, alienate Ukraine from its Western partners, and push the country back into Russia’s orbit. While explicitly pro-Russian narratives have become a harder sell in Ukraine since the Kremlin opted to invade the country in 2014, these narratives don’t so much boost Russia as try to make the rest of the world look just as malign. They resonate outside of the usual “pro-Russian” bubble in Ukraine and spread among audiences that are often viscerally opposed to the Kremlin." (Exeuctive summary)
1 Ukraine’s Information Environment, 10
2 Media Monitoring and Key Narratives, 13
3 Public Opinion Polling, 17
4 Social Media Analysis, 24
5 Qualitative Research: Penetration of Anti-Western Disinformation Narratives, 26
6 Conclusions and Recommendations, 38