"The EU’s conflict early warning system is a good example of how to integrate quantitative risk forecasting with traditional diplomatic and intelligence analyses to support the prevention of violent conflict. The system holds important lessons for other multi-method and multi-source early warning
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processes, even beyond conflict prevention – for example to analyse foreign influencing operations and critical economic dependencies. The system’s weak spot is the lack of mechanisms to ensure sustained preventive action. To bridge this gap, the EU should consider anticipatory action protocols with stronger follow-up mechanisms and dedicated funding. Upgrades of the warning system should include complementary foresight methods to detect developments that are hard to predict with current data models, more structured qualitative assessments, and thorough evaluation of preventive instruments." (Summary)
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"This refreshed version of the RESIST toolkit reflects the new realities of the threat that mis- and disinformation poses today. It explores new techniques and tactics, and how organisations can effectively identify, monitor and respond. The toolkit takes a systematic, evidence-based approach for he
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lping organisations build societal and individual resilience to disinformation." (Foreword, page 3)
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"This report provides a crucial and in depth look at ICT initiatives and trends across the key human rights practices of prevention, fact-finding, and advocacy, identifying both risks and opportunities. In prevention, ICTs can be harnessed to protect human rights defenders, to prevent violations in
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police-civilian interactions, and in data-driven early warning systems and communication-based conflict prevention. That said, ICTs also create new security risks for human rights defenders and can violate the right to privacy. In fact-finding, ICTs afford the spontaneous and solicited participation of civilian witnesses in the production of human rights evidence. Of course, a greater volume and variety of information from unknown and untrained sources creates problems of misinformation and verification, which technology only goes so far to mitigate. In advocacy, ICTs provide new channels for quickly and visibly mobilizing publics, for directly engaging with advocacy targets, and for spreading awareness of human rights. That said, the effects of these new advocacy channels are unclear, and they may imperil categories of human rights and the reputations of human rights organizations. The report also considers how digital divides and the political economy of ICTs influence the nature, extent, and distribution of these opportunities and risks. In doing so, it outlines a research framework for understanding ICTs and human rights practice to underpin academics’ and practitioners’ assessment, development, and deployment of ICTs for and in the spirit of human rights." (Executive summary)
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"New technologies are changing how and when we learn about events and choose to respond to them. Mobile phones and the internet have altered how we engage with the world. With technology usage expanding rapidly in the developing world, new avenues of participation, engagement, and accountability are
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emerging. Globally, more people now have the opportunity to actively make use of these tools to participate in processes that impact their societies. This opportunity for participation is also an opportunity for engaging in new ways with peacebuilding processes. As the field of technology for peacebuilding grows, most attention has been paid to the potential of new technologies for bridging the gap between warning and response. Whilst the focus on the use of technology for early warning and response is important, there is more to this growing field. The empowerment of people to participate in localized conflict management efforts is one of the most significant innovations and opportunities created by new technologies. Technology can contribute to peacebuilding processes by offering tools that foster collaboration, transform attitudes, and give a stronger voice to communities. This article aims to give practitioners two related frameworks to understand how new technologies can enhance peacebuilding. The first section looks at the functions that technology can have in a peacebuilding program as a tool for data processing, communication, engagement, and gaming. We then examine the program areas that new technologies can best contribute to, covering early warning/early response systems, programs that allow citizens to voice their opinions and experiences, collaboration efforts, and programs aimed at transforming attitudes." (Abstract)
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"This book shows how to predict wars. More specifically, it tells us how to anticipate in a timely fashion the scope and extent of interstate conflict. By focusing on how all governments-democratic or not-seek to secure public support before undertaking risky moves such as starting a war, Getting to
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War provides a methodology for identifying a regime's intention to launch a conflict well in advance of the actual initiation. The goal here is the identification of leading indicators of war. Getting to War develops such a leading political indicator by a systematic examination of the ways in which governments influence domestic and international information flows. Regardless of the relative openness of the media system in question, we can accurately gauge the underlying intentions of those governments by a systematic analysis of opinion-leading articles in the mass media. This analysis allows us to predict both the likelihood of conflict and what form of conflict-military or diplomatic/economic-will occur. Theoretically, this book builds on a forty-year-old insight by Karl Deutsch-that all governments seek to mobilize public opinion through mass media and that careful analysis of such domestic media activity could provide an "early warning network" of international conflict. By showing how to tap the link between conflict initiation and public support, this book provides both a useful tool for understanding crisis behavior as well as new theoretical insights on how domestic politics help drive foreign policy." (Publisher description)
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